Rethink Technology Forecast is Bullish on VVC
Rethink Technology Research's "Media & 《百家乐软件》是一份合理的报告, comprehensive, 这是一份启发性的报告，将数字用于预测，并为未来十年的编解码器相关规划提供了坚实的基础. Any company involved in content production, codec or encoder development, media delivery, 或者媒体消费可以从它的洞察力和预测中受益.
你可以(也应该)下载这份报告的摘要 here. Rethink还为我提供了一份最终报告的节略版本，我将分享其中的一些细节. 完整报告的许可证起价为3,800美元，适用于1到5个用户.
By way of background, Rethink是一家分析公司，每周发布关于娱乐生态系统和流媒体的断层线报告. Over the years, Faultine发表了许多有见地的文章，而这些文章往往被其他媒体忽视或掩盖, like the marginalization of MPEG, Sisvel's AV1 and VP9 patent pools, 以及LCEVC对编解码器市场产生直接影响的潜力. So, 该报告不仅反映了为报告而进行的新的独立研究, it incorporates an ongoing deep knowledge of the codec market.
Figure 1. Transcoding workload by codec over the next ten years.
Speaking of research, to produce the report, Rethink与编解码器领域的多个涉众进行了交谈，以制定编解码器部署的时间表(参见 Figure 1). The report uses a ten-year timeline starting in 2020, which is appropriate because codec markets change very slowly. 该报告预测了这段时间内视频设备的销量以及相关设备的版税. 所有的销售和版税数据都是全球和地区的，设备版税是根据乐观的总潜在市场(所有潜在设备支付所有版税)和更现实的服务可获得市场(所有市场的预期版税)提供的。.
You see the codecs covered in Figure 1; interestingly, 尽管Rethink确实将AV1的后继者AV2纳入了他们的分析, they excluded Essential Video Coding (EVC), MPEG在2020-2021年期间推出的三种编解码器之一.
Figure 2 shows projected global device royalties, which excludes LCEVC because it only includes complete codecs, 而不是通过增强层提供的编解码器(我将在下面进一步讨论LCEVC). The projections are surprisingly bullish on VVC, though expecting it to surpass HEVC in 2029 seems reasonable. Regarding VP9, AV1, and AV2 royalties, the report states, “我们目前预计Sisvel将在收取这些版税方面取得重大进展, despite the protestations of AOMedia. Despite this, we still expect AV1 to grow significantly."
Figure 2. 全球视频设备版税由保守的业务可获得市场.
Interestingly, 该报告将LCEVC的成功与AV1和AV2的成功联系起来，并预计到2030年，LCEVC的渗透率将达到30%左右. 由于V-Nova的版税不以设备为基础，该报告没有给出这些版税的具体金额. Rather, V-Nova is targeting the content providers directly, 哪些不符合报告中用于估算其他版税的模型.
On the whole, there's never been a more confusing time in the codec market, and the stakes are extraordinarily high, Rethink预计，到2030年，编解码器版税将超过300亿美元. 无论这是你的组织的收入还是费用，你都需要数据来根据你的预测和业务计划. Rethink's report is the only one of its kind AFAIK, 该公司的领域知识和研究能力使其成为流媒体生态系统中所有利益相关者的必读书籍.
Related Articles
当涉及到为媒体采用新兴编解码器的路线图决策时 & entertainment content delivery between now and 2030, what do the numbers say, 自疫情撼动流媒体市场以来，预测发生了什么变化? 在对流媒体学习中心的Jan Ozer的深入独家采访中, Rethink Technology Research高级分析师Alex Davies讨论了Rethink的新M&E Codecs Market Forecast.
17 Jul 2023
Who's contributing to the two VVC patent pools, 合并后的版税会加速还是阻碍收养? 我们采访了两位行业专家以及MPEG LA和Access Advance的首席执行官，了解他们的见解.
24 Feb 2022
条款是明确的——硬件/付费软件每单位20美分，免费软件每单位5美分——但其中有很多细则，还有很多问题, 包括那些既不在MPEG LA池中也不在Access Advance池中的贡献者.
28 Jan 2022
Jan Ozer put EVC, VVC, and LCEVC through the paces, checking each for not only encoding quality, encoding complexity, and playback efficiency but also power consumption. Each one has its pros and cons; read on to find out how they all performed.
29 Dec 2021
Access Advance和MPEG LA都将管理VVC的专利池, 但目前尚不清楚这些专利将涵盖哪些内容，以及可能的版税费用是多少.
28 Jan 2021
VVC today can be both useful and usable; let's hope that VVC IP owners can formulate a royalty policy that delivers the same.
07 Dec 2020
V-Nova CEO & 联合创始人Guido Meardi介绍了LCEVC(低复杂度增强视频编码)，并解释了2019年流媒体西部视频剪辑中神奇的发生方式.
13 Apr 2020
创新的步伐越来越快，对视频编解码器的要求也越来越高. MPEG的三部分计划回答了版税、许可和计算效率的问题. Meet VVC, MPEG-5 Part 1 (EVC), and MPEG-5 Part 2 (LCEVC).
15 Oct 2019
Companies and Suppliers Mentioned